Obama’s Opportunism

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Rich Lowry gets to the heart of Obama’s success.  First he notes how Obama has benefited from the financial crisis:

After the Democratic primaries, Obama’s challenge was connecting with working-class voters on their economic concerns. Could the dispassionate Obama rouse himself to do it? Could he overcome his exotic background and elitist vibe? Then, a stock market that lost almost 21 percent in value in seven days rendered the questions moot. The vertiginous drop sent every Republican candidate in the country reeling, and relieved Obama of the burden of connecting. Now, he only has to seem reassuring and nonthreatening. That he knows how to do.

The he notes how Obama is the master of saying nothing; of seeming moderate and prudent no matter what the issue or his previous positions:

Obama could have been prepped for the presidential debates by Shakespeare’s Polonius, whose perfectly balanced advice to his son — “be thou familiar, but by no means vulgar,” etc. — is weak-mindedness masquerading as wisdom. Obama repeatedly promised “fundamental change” in the second debate, but otherwise portrayed himself as the embodiment of moderation, nay, even a kind of conservatism. In his own telling, he wants to cut taxes for 95 percent of Americans, reduce spending, preserve but improve the current health-care system and win the war in Afghanistan while prudently drawing down troops in Iraq.

In the first debate, he said John McCain was “absolutely right” about the need for more government accountability, for fewer earmarks and for spending cuts, and about the success of the surge in reducing violence in Iraq and the danger of a nuclear Iran. At times, he seemed determined to be the first presidential candidate to win a debate on the basis of sheer agreeability.

But, as Lowry notes, the amazing thing is that no one really knows what Obama really believes or what he will really do:

But no one can know whether Obama is the leftist his associations suggest, or the irenic uniter of his iconic 2004 convention speech; whether he’s the down-the-line liberal who kowtowed to the base of his own party in the Democratic primaries, or the pragmatist who readjusted to the center as soon as enthralled liberals handed him the nomination. The consistent line running through his career is opportunism, a willingness to accommodate whoever — Bill Ayers or the swing voter in Ohio — can help him up the next rung in his ladder of ambition at any juncture.

The GOP finds this exasperating.  How can the country allow Obama to avoid defining himself?  How can a candidate be this slippery?  Why isn’t Obama required to explain his past?

I don’t have any easy answers, but I think it has to do with the emotional undercurrent of this election.  Voters have decided to blame President Bush for all the ugly things in world (Iraq, the economy, etc.) and even when they don’t blame him directly are tired of the status quo.  They want to believe that change is possible; they want a chance to wipe the slate clean.

Obama’s image, history, persona, style, and temperament all fit this need better than McCain.  The only chance McCain has is if voters decided that going with this emotional choice is too big a risk.  So far he has failed at making this case.

Maybe he never had much of chance given the environment and the media’s unwillingness to tolerate criticisms of Obama and to cry racism at every turn.  But this is reality.  Obama is a talented snake oil salesman.

Given the above, I don’t think specific policy proposals are going to determine this election.  What is going to determine this election is what voters feel.  McCain has to put together a coherent theme that changes the emotional calculation and hammer it home for the next 20 some days.

If he doesn’t I guess we will find out who the real Obama is . . .

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Growing Hope: Sowing the Seeds of Positive Change in Your Life and the World

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